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Background of 189 The Reference Class Problem Thunk

2 out of 10 people who read this will watch this episode. 1 in 20 rs will watch it. ...I wonder how many rs who ... Predicting the future is hard. Weirdly enough, you can sometimes do better with *less* information! -Links for the Curious- ... When you start a project, being able to sense-check your assumptions on risk and on value is a fundamental safeguard against ... What if...guys, are you listening? What if the subjects of scientific theories...ACTUALLY EXIST?! OOOOOOH SNAP (Additional ... Aumann's Agreement Theorem suggests that rational folk shouldn't be able to continuously disagree...so why do we? -Links for ... Research, Experimentation, Analysis. It's a simple rhythm, but it's amazing how often someone will forget one of the beats & waste ...

Occam's Razor urges us not to multiply entities beyond necessity - it seems like a decent rule, but *why* does it work? And what ... Programmers routinely "refactor" code, clarifying its purpose & reorganizing its structure without changing how it works. What else ... Scientists excel at finding patterns, but statistical significance isn't always enough to create policy. -Links for the Curious- A great ... Although they're pretty, books are just a kind of product, same as any in your home. So why do nerds like me just lose their minds ... Tim Mather and Dr. Vivek Puri present why float-use risk matters and discover the only known solution for modeling it. Monte Carlo ... Get My Free AI Guide To (Legally) Boost Your Productivity By 300% as a Student:

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Winning Your Fantasy Football Drafts Using the Professor's Process. Lessons to Strengthen Your 2021 Fantasy Football Season. Is there such a thing as aesthetic obligation? Do we have duties that are explicitly aesthetic in character, or are they really just ... How is philosophy like fashion? ...that's not a setup for a pun, I promise. - Links for the Curious- How many legs does a dog have, if you call a tail a leg? Philosophers: "Well...it depends." - Links for the Curious-

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189. The Reference Class Problem | THUNK
VIDEO

189. The Reference Class Problem | THUNK

2,651 views Live Report

2 out of 10 people who read this will watch this episode. 1 in 20 rs will watch it. ...I wonder how many rs who ...

127. Overfitting & Reference Class Forecasting | THUNK
VIDEO

127. Overfitting & Reference Class Forecasting | THUNK

4,307 views Live Report

Predicting the future is hard. Weirdly enough, you can sometimes do better with *less* information! -Links for the Curious- ...

Karlene Agard explains the basics of reference class forecasting
VIDEO

Karlene Agard explains the basics of reference class forecasting

450 views Live Report

When you start a project, being able to sense-check your assumptions on risk and on value is a fundamental safeguard against ...

190. Scientific Realism | THUNK
VIDEO

190. Scientific Realism | THUNK

4,674 views Live Report

What if...guys, are you listening? What if the subjects of scientific theories...ACTUALLY EXIST?! OOOOOOH SNAP (Additional ...

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Last Updated: May 26, 2026

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